Knowing El Niño is coming is not the same as being prepared

Preparing before the season: Farmers undertake manual land preparation ahead of the rains, one of several early actions that can strengthen preparedness for a more difficult and erratic season.

Farmers across the Dande Valley had widely heard that the 2026/27 season could bring below-normal and erratic rainfall associated with El Niño. But awareness was not yet translating consistently into action. By August, there was still limited evidence that households were changing how they stored grain, conserved livestock feed, managed water or planned production for a potentially difficult season. 

APT’s Learning Study found the same gap. Many households appeared inclined to wait until conditions visibly deteriorated before responding. By then, some of the best options — retaining grain, preserving crop residues, preparing livestock feed, choosing short-duration crops or selling livestock before condition falls — may already be harder or more costly. 

The lesson is that climate information only has value if it changes decisions early enough to matter. For APT, the focus is therefore shifting from simply communicating seasonal risk to helping households translate that warning into practical choices before the rains begin. Preparedness is not one action: it is a series of small decisions made early enough to protect food, livestock, income and productive assets.